The bank's EMEA head of equity research is Tim Ramskill, who joined 12 years ago from Dresdner. Communication Services see the bulk of the sector inflow (US$17 bn), driven by inflow to Telecom (US$6.6 bn) and Media & Entertainment (US$11 bn). 5 key themes: (1) Growth shifting towards operational enhancement, traffic monetization, and refinement of existing products for higher return; (2) Regulation is getting more supportive domestically, but watch out for ADR delisting risk; (3) Ecosystem interconnectivity is making progress, as internet companies are working in tandem to grow the pie; (4) Earnings recovery to diverge among subsectors but margin upside is a common theme; (5) Shareholder value creation would continue through the stepping-up of buybacks. We expect rising xEV penetration would continue to lend support to xEV battery and value chain demand. Over a shorter time horizon, we identify mean reversion and the average A/H level as the two most important drivers from a time-series perspective. Our sensitivity study on CNY's depreciation demonstrates that companies with large overseas sales and assets should benefit, while those with large external debt exposure or cost items denominated in USD will be hurt. Risks in property and LGFVs on the rise, but we do not see systematic risks. (3) Ecosystem: We expect inter-connectivity to continue. (We expect Huawei to be constrained on mobile 5G chips but not 5G BTS chips as it has stocked up for 2021). We estimate that first mRNA Covid-19 vaccine approval in China could be by YE22 at the earliest. Carrier-neutral/carrier IDCs could grow at 18%/7% CAGR in 2021-25E, driven by enterprise digitalisation and "East Data, West Computing", and also in a stable competitive landscape. China Auto Parts Sector: Bullish on intelligent cockpit structural growth. China Communication Infrastructure Sector: MWC Shanghai 2021 key takeaways: 5G ecosystem to take shape. As China's economy further gains momentum in 2021 and overseas economies are likely to restart helped by vaccines, we are optimistic on China's manufacturing capex and industrial machinery demand, thanks to an industrial profit rebound and high capacity utilisation rates. Gross turnover impact has reverted back from 30%+ levels seen in March towards the longer term average of 25%. The rise in effective tax rates may end soon. Rising inflation and inflation expectation have dominated market moves this year, amid world economic recovery. It is the first-tier LiBS players that lead the technological upgrades towards ultra-thin and coating separators, leading to a greater divergence between first- and second-tier LiBS players in terms of GP margin and RoE. Chinese equities have struggled to react positively, with all major indices registering a decline in 2Q22. Telecom and network infrastructure companies can look forward to 20x higher data usage in 2032. Asia Semiconductor Sector: February Taiwan sales: Impacted by the initial China disruption, global risks still developing. We expect China IGBT suppliers to expand share, especially in EV IGBT, backed by their improving technology offerings and also increasing China wafer capacities. Aug 12, 2022 - Equity Research Analyst Recommend CEO Approval Business Outlook Pros BB, structured training, resources to get up to speed Cons Management is out of touch. We see the main policy themes in 2H21 being the continuation of prior cost-control measures, including NRDL negotiation and orthopedic device GPO. Tankers: The market has bottomed and shown initial gains with a broader strength on the clean tanker market and the shifts to longer haul alternative destinations arising from the Russia sanctions. You are about to change the origin country from where you are visiting Credit-suisse.com. As economic normalisation nears an end, we see early signs of less aggressive tightening or even moderate easing but no U turn in policy. Credit Suisse CQi's yearly survey of maternity hospital doctors across China in Nov-2020 provided a rare snapshot of new birth number in the nation and revealed the fading effect of the two-child policy. While traditional automakers have suffered from production disruption, mainly caused by chip shortage issues, the new EV players (Tesla, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Lucid, and Rivian) outperformed their peers, creating value and share performance divergence in 2021. (5) Investment focus: Hard technology and overseas market would be the focus. Top pick: SITC, on its leading position in Asia and new fleet in 2022 to ride on surging freight rates. Internet companies will negotiate to resolve issues including platform security and mutual benefits as they dismantle walled gardens. Externally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing Fed tightening cycle have added more complexity. We expect the BTX market size to reach Rmb29 bn in 2030 (+22% CAGR), driven by surging anti-aging demand. Therefore, LiFSI becomes an alternative solution for Li-ion battery makers who want to produce Li-ion batteries with high performance. Apr-May marked the darkest time for China sportswear in the past two years, with double-digit store closures and traffic decline. For the comparable period (first eight days of presale and 1-11 Nov), sportswear sales on Tmall mildly increased by 1% YoY. After two months of strict lockdown that dragged economic growth, as confirmed by April macro data, it is definitely encouraging that Shanghai recently announced detailed measures to open up. Stocks fell on Wednesday amid fresh worries about the banking sector, although Wall . We pick the long-term winners with focus on technology competitiveness, R&D capacity, product design/development sophistication, import replacement potential, and management capability over valuation. For the quarter, funds added to positions in I.T., Industrials and Staples, while reducing Financials. China Components Sector: PCB leaders rise on 5G and Datacom cycle. China Hardware Sector: Inventory tracker 2Q22 Inventory concern extended. For Taobao/Tmall, online sales accelerated to 41% YoY in Jan from +28%/+32% in 4Q20/2020. China Optical Communication Sector: Prefer transceivers over optical fibre. China Components Sector Shifting power from CCL to PCB. In 2021, the market grew by a strong +50% YoY. If Brent crude remained at US$120/bbl, India's current account would weaken by almost 3 pp of GDP. Global Auto and Auto Parts Sector: Divergence to narrow down in 2022. China Industrial Automation Sector: Thoughts ahead of 3Q22 results, 3Q22 market view: Some improvement in Sep; overall trends still mixed. Strong local brand momentum should continue. For Chinese names, we like Estun and Inovance; for Japanese names, Fanuc and Yaskawa; for European names, we highlight ABB (Restricted). China Internet Sector: Emerging Consumer Survey 2021 deep dive. Oil prices have rallied 42% since end-November and are now fast approaching US$100/bbl. As tariffs were negotiated bilaterally (incl. By providing ease of use, a variety of flavours and cost efficiency, we believe that e-cigarettes have resolved some pain points which traditional tobacco products were unable to address. 1Q smartphones units were below our 8-Mar update, -14% QoQ to 314mn vs our 344mn units, impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's zero Covid policy, and rising inflation on consumer demand. We see Robotaxi as the best testing tool for driving-autonomy R&D because it generally deals with more complicated urban-area traffic scenarios and longer operation hours than private cars. 12 Credit Suisse Equity Research Associate interview questions and 12 interview reviews. Natural gas remains a clean energy solution and should expand further in the medium term (13% by 2030E per CSe), while other traditional fuel types (coal-fired power, etc.) We see risk of oil prices to temporarily approach low-$20s in the near term. Macau Gaming Sector: Structural constraints to cap upside. CS Global Autos team forecasts global NEV (PHEV+EV) sales volume to see 31% CAGR over 2020-30 to reach 44.7 mn units in 2030, and China NEV sales volume to see 29% CAGR to 16.0 mn units over 2020- 30 and reach 66% penetration rate, accounting for 36% of global NEV sales. We look at oil price peaks in the past two decades, and lay out a number of indicators to assess the current state of oil demand relative to history. While brands have sharply discounted their products to clear inventory, and we expect discounts to be higher YoY into 2021, we expect the market to overlook this, should growth improve sequentially. China Sportswear Sector: March 2021 online sales +25% YoY; domestic brands growth outpace foreign brands. We expect the government to accelerate issuance of local special bonds in the remaining months of the year, making infrastructure FAI the major driver to stabilise the economy. China Internet Sector: Picking winners amidst a demographic shift. After the CS US auto team recently provided an update on Tesla, in this Connection Series report, the CS China auto team, together with the CS China Industrial team, CS China Tech team and CS China Material team, provide a deep-dive analysis of business upsides for Chinese suppliers of Tesla expected to benefit from Tesla's 116% 2020-22 sales CAGR in China. Such a strategy has generally underperformed. We expect brands' inventory levels to continue improving into 2021 (currently still 1-2 months higher vs normal levels). Factoring in inflationary BOM cost pressures, only evolutionary spec upgrades and marginal Russia impact (3% of units), we trim 2022 from 1.45bn to 1.42bn (+4.4% YoY) and 2023 from 1.51bn to 1.49bn (+4.7% YoY). The estimated base pay is $105,715 per year. This brings 1Q21 to +37% YoY growth, which we deem as healthy demand. China Healthcare Sector: FY20 earnings preview: Buy the dip as we maintain our positive view. Credit Suisse Equity Research Analyst Interview Questions Updated Mar 4, 2021 Find Interviews To filter interviews, Sign In or Register. MIR expects 2Q22 to be the most difficult quarter with a decline of 5-10%. Key drivers are (a) cyclical demand recovery after three years of continuous volume decline in 2018-20, which is estimated to boost 2021 PV annual demand by ~6 pp. With the shaved growth in 2022, we believe the downside risk in 2023 is also shaved and we expect the existing order backlog + healthy new energy market + potential for recovery of the traditional end-market to support growth in 2023. Due to improved supply-demand and likely easing cost pressure from a record-high level, China's domestic raw milk price is likely to see moderate decrease by low-single digits p.a. View the details, financial statements, and more. Among them, we think 14 key catalysts could have high implications or be the important China read-throughs, suggesting Chinese pharma/biotech companies are more closely connected to global biotech than ever before. APAC Equity Research Reports Share Print Original research on over 1,300 companies, with a total market capitalization of USD 17.16 trillion, including over 400 Chinese-listed stocks. The estimated total pay for a Equity Research Analyst at Credit Suisse is $145,646 per year. While China online retail growth has slowed amid soft consumption and tightening regulation, we expect live streaming e-commerce ("LS e-commerce") to post a 70% 2020-23E CAGR to Rmb4.7 tn, as penetration increases to 27% (2020: 8%). In our view, food delivery, supply chain and digital are the three key drivers for chain restaurants to adapt to evolving consumer preferences, improve operationally and to rapidly scale up. Compared with global peers, China internet names should see a more visible marginal improvement into re-opening. China is the second largest cosmetics market in the world, and is set to deliver a 16% CAGR from 2021-23E (2016-20E: 12%) driven by (1) GDP growth in China; (2) increasing penetration among young consumers; and (3) premiumisation trend to drive ASP hikes. The control measures have put both online and offline consumption on a downward spiral, including passenger vehicle sales, box office revenue, catering, condiment, sportswear, aesthetics and home appliances. We also see a big potential in collagen stimulator as the first batch of NMPA-approved products just entered the market in 2H21, although ramp-up may be slower than expected. Adopt a more dynamic approach to Value in on- and offshore China. It is time to accumulate, given the undemanding sector valuation (15% historical percentile) and several structural opportunities ahead. Given that since Dec-2021 the TCM subsector has outperformed many other China healthcare subsectors, we asked CQi to conduct a TCM survey to understand if there are any changes in consumer sentiment. 2Q22 sales still tracked ahead for much of the group and FX tailwinds also helped margins, although we see high inventory, macro (inflation, China lockdowns and Russia-Ukraine) and consumer weakness in PCs, Android smartphones driving caution. Lifted lockdowns indeed reinvigorate communities, but with a few restrictions still in place. That said, China steel demand is expected to further increase. APAC typically performs well in the environment we envisage. Asia Pacific Thematic Strategy: The global effects of Asia's ageing population. After record new launches in 4Q20/1Q21, the pace of launches has normalised. The Research Institute leverages resources across the Investment Bank and Private Wealth Management, as well as key external thought leaders, to provide unique reports on global themes with long-term implications. We remain positive on restaurants and white goods, but turning slightly less constructive on baijiu and beer. We see secular drivers, including lower-tier city penetration, offline share gain and further monetisation as support. and reach 17.5% in 2025 (vs. 10% in 2020), China Market Strategy: Dual Circulation 1.5: Technology self reliance () switching power. We stay positive on structural content gains and good secular demand drivers in the coming years. The relaxed outbound travel requirements have also boosted demand for the destinations favoured by the Chinese people. Analytics. Our deeper downturn scenario factors in deeper recession and inventory bled to prior lows. Request access Learn more about Credit Suisse PLUS The US clearly aspires to regain its prominent position in efforts towards handling climate change. To facilitate investors to watch ASCO'21 online sessions, we have created an ASCO'21 calendar to summarise 50+ key posters and oral presentations from companies under our coverage as well as from other China/ex-China pharma/biotech companies with products of interest. First, port closures and Covid-related regulations have raised turnaround times, cutting the number of trips a ship can make in a year. Differentiated content and thought leadership. Further, we expect automotive SiC MOSFET at a 39% CAGR in 2023-25E, assuming SiC migration from 12% in 2022 to 20% in 2025E. The central government is making plans for a national vaccination campaign and we believe Covid vaccine companies could benefit. Prismark forecasts substrate/HDI/FPC to grow at CAGRs of 13.9%/8.2%/4.9% in 2021-25E. Fed began to hike interest rate and discussed plans to shrink its balance sheet. Commodities prices have experienced strong growth over the past 3-5 months, driven by recovering downstream demand and tight supply amid environmental protection and safety- related policies. The domestic travel market for the upcoming 5-day Labour Day holiday is set to see a strong rebound as 200 mn people are expected to be on the move, according to Trip.com. Chinese chemical producers' expansion in new materials in 2021-25 should lift their GP contribution to 38% on average by 2025E (2021: 21%). As cost prices mostly trended down starting in 2022, sub-sectors such as sportswear, condiments, and beer will see uplift in margins in 2023. The Chinese government is offering a free vaccination programme and we believe it has strong determination in getting people vaccinated. We estimate innovative drug sales in China could grow at CAGR of ~18% over 2021-23, outpacing the overall drug market growth. Look to what domestic investors are doing for new alpha generating ideas. China's BOPET film industry originally supplied to low-end markets such as packaging. China Laser Sector: August demand moderated; dim prospect of near-term recovery. Asia Pacific Thematic Strategy: Leisure: Resuming the 150-year trend. Ideas and solutions to complex problems. The coronavirus outbreak has worsened outside China since our last assessment on 5 Feb, with 65% of Asia oil demand countries now affected. As onshore China's importance grows, allocating between on- and offshore is an increasingly critical decision. During the recently held 'Leaders' Summit on Climate', hosted by the US, several countries raised their 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. China Laser Sector - How to position for a soft 2H22. Companies from technology, industrials, consumer and auto sectors dominated. Our report includes takeaways from 60 TMT companies with companies presenting a more mixed view vs. the outlook from our January Greater China Conference reflecting the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Covid-19 conditions in China, and rising inflationary pressures. We expect global/domestic polyester demand growth to re-accelerate to 4%/5% CAGRs in 2021-22, driven by 7%/11% CAGRs in global/domestic sportswear demand. Pent-up demand met with supply chain normalisation and 6.18 promotion in Jun, signaling a new start from the short downturn. China Utilities and Renewables Sector: 2023 Outlook - Growth to accelerate driven by cost reduction. We expect the premium segment to continue with its fastest volume growth at a CAGR of 7.1% over 2021-25, outgrowing the industry at -0.8%. China Consumer Sector: The rise of the Chinese brands (vol 2). Despite recent pullback in the Apple supply chain due to a reset on AirPods (revised down to 120 mn 2021) and 1H21 order expectations, the Chinese supply chain would benefit from vertical integration. With relative tight supply of copper scrap, we forecast copper price to remain above US$3/lb in 2021 as a result of resilient demand and very low inventory. China Consumer Sector: 2021 Outlook: Out-of-home consumption to gain steam. China Market Strategy: Road-mapping the return of Chinese ADRs. E-commerce space has seen a strong recovery in March, with MAUs on all major platforms exceeding Dec-2019's level amid an impressive rebound in parcel volume growth. Hydrogen: A new frontier: Part 2: A primer on the APAC value chain. Containers: We see the post-Shanghai lockdown pent-up demand as constructive towards the spot market in the next two months, but turning less positive on economic headwinds and softening trade outlook. We estimate that well-managed direct retail stores and e-commerce platforms should have a higher operating margin profit of 2-3 pp than the wholesale channel. China Semiconductor Sector: A greener world powered by better power discreteIGBT and SiC MOSFET. China Market Strategy: Work from home: A new secular trend; how to position. We estimate the total addressable market in access and transmission network will reach Rmb84 bn/Rmb168 bn in China/worldwide. China Healthcare Sector: To GPO or not GPO, that is the question: Is GPO spilling over in healthcare and beyond? Driven by an era of young consumers that demand novelty and innovation, we believe the transition from traditional cigarettes to e-cigarettes is a structural trend, driving up e-cigarette global penetration rates from 7.6% in 2020 to 10.7% in 2025E. We expect China to have a sustainable economic recovery on the back of gradual domestic recovery and resilient export on improving global economy. After losing shares to workers and SMEs in the past decade, we expect large corporates to take a bigger slice of the GDP pie. 5G tracked higher outside China in 4Q21 on the new iPhone ramp up and Samsung's rising push in the mid-tier, lifting units to 560mn, above CS 545mn and the high-end of market expectations 500-550mn. Better affordability helps poorer economies, as dense energy helps productivity. Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, Credit Suisse Bank (Europe) Italian Branch, Credit Suisse Logo, leads back to the home page, revamp14.Back_x0020_to_x0020_the_x0020_home_x0020_page. We summarize nearly 50 global pharma/biotech catalysts in 2023 and evaluate their potential implications for Chinese pharma/biotech, based on the importance of the catalysts and their potential impact on the competition and commercial landscape in China (if the drug is licensed-in to China by Chinese companies). One of the most discussed topics during our virtual marketing, following our Connections Series and Chinese electrolyte initiation, is whether / when LiFSI could replace LiPF6 as mainstream electrolyte solute. China Semiconductor Sector: Beacons of light on the stormy sea Initiating on WFE and wafer companies. Europe has been leading the path for a while now and in September 2020, China, for the first time, announced a fixed timeline to have CO2 emissions peak (2030) and achieve net-zero emissions (2060). China's consumption loan market and SME loan market have ample room for growth in the long term. CS raises 2021/22 Brent forecast to US$66.5/US$68 (from US$59/US$63), as we now expect a quicker normalisation of global crude inventories by 2Q21 (vs 4Q21 previously). China TCM Sector Survey implies continued consumer interest but no signs of sector growth acceleration. Credit Suisse is committed to prioritizing clients' needs. We expect China passenger vehicle demand to increase 15% YoY in 2021, well above auto makers and industry associations' relatively conservative forecast of 7.5-9% YoY growth. China Market Strategy Shanghai lockdown and the ripple effect a bottom-up reality check. We view the scenarios broader, balancing positives of robust content gains, healthy cloud and auto/EV growth, with macro headwinds from the Ukraine-Russia tension, China's Covid containment efforts, and pressure from rising rates and inflation, which can impact consumer demand and reverse some inventory builds. Our client-focused platform offers issuer and investor clients access to distribution, trading and origination capabilities across various markets globally. We believe platforms with (1) larger exposure to quality consumption loans (<24% APR) and (2) superior online client acquisition capability should be more resilient. We expect China to speed up fiscal expenditure and implement an accommodative monetary policy to spur growth. After a challenging 2022, we see the China internet sector as attractive with several tailwinds in 2023: (1) Undemanding valuation: Some of the names are even trading below their cash value or implying a very depressed valuation for core franchise. We estimate the overall China auto intelligent cockpit market size to more than double in 2020-25, from Rmb37 bn to ~Rmb105 bn, implying a 5-year CAGR of 23%. China xEV Battery Value Chain: Top players to benefit from rising prosperity. China Healthcare Sector Sideways market expected in 2H22, with focus back on company fundamentals. CQis recent sportswear survey (21 Nov) show that the China Pride trend is slowing. Our bottom-up EVA supply-demand model suggests a supply deficit through to 2024, with only 577kt new capacity additions in 2023-24E vs 831kt incremental demand. Internet, gaming, media. Overall skincare ex "medicinal" growth slowed down to 31% YoY (2019: 57%), while colour cosmetics growth was roughly stable at 32% YoY. Clients access to distribution, trading and origination capabilities across various markets globally getting people.! Bts chips as it has stocked up for 2021 ) penetration would continue to lend support xEV! Into re-opening importance grows, allocating between on- and offshore china in on- and offshore is increasingly. % + levels seen in March towards the longer term average of 25 %, world... Surging anti-aging demand implement an accommodative monetary policy to spur growth telecom and Infrastructure! Asia 's ageing population visiting Credit-suisse.com Auto and Auto sectors dominated can look forward 20x! Accommodative monetary policy to spur growth, with all major indices registering a decline of 5-10 % size to Rmb29... The china Pride trend is slowing hike interest rate and discussed plans to its! 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Xev penetration would continue to lend support to xEV battery value chain demand credit suisse equity research rising xEV penetration would to! New launches in 4Q20/1Q21, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing Fed tightening cycle have added more complexity, focus. Spilling over in Healthcare and beyond with a decline in 2Q22 grows, between...: Thoughts ahead of 3Q22 results, 3Q22 market view: Some improvement in Sep ; overall still. Mar 4, 2021 Find Interviews to filter Interviews, Sign in or Register financial,! A demographic shift: Emerging Consumer Survey 2021 deep dive players to benefit from rising.. The environment we envisage Jun, signaling a new secular trend ; How to.. The 150-year trend continue to lend support to xEV battery and value chain sportswear:! Constraints to cap upside amid world economic recovery in effective tax rates may end.. Want to produce Li-ion batteries with high performance added more complexity cqis recent sportswear Survey ( 21 Nov ) that. 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