We are proposing a strategy to deal with the main factors that can be influenced by government action and which have an effect on the productivity gap between Israel and the benchmark OECD economies. May 2009. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/134-AE03.pdf. March 30, 2020. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/us-policy-middle-ea. The global economic crisis drags on long after the COVID-19 health crisis abates, and so energy prices remain depressed and the economies of the Middle East are hard hit, including the wealthy Gulf states. It's Extreme drought in Iran leads to a wave of protests that forces the regime to take especially harsh measures to crush dissent. With that in mind, the authors sought to develop four scenarios of possible futures of the Middle East in 2030 from the Israeli point of view and based on the 2x2 matrix methodology. Changes in the dynamics of great power competition in the Middle East might bring about significant changes in the structure of regional camps, which will not necessarily prove helpful for advancing Israels core national security interests. U.S. Regime change in the Islamic Republic of Iran does not guarantee that Tehrans regional or nuclear ambitions will be curbed. Schoemaker and George S. Day. Iraq and Syria remain theaters of low intensity conflict between Israel and the U.S. on one side and Iran-backed forces on the other; these confrontations are characterized by recurring crises and increasing lethality. It also shows how the erosion of the U.S.-Israeli alliance and the emergence of a new regional security architecture could result in additional security challenges for Israel. Accessed February 18, 2021. https://www.worldwater.io. 27. Emerging technologies: New challenges to global stability. The Atlantic Council. For a glimpse of Israels future, look not at Poland or Hungary, but at Afghanistan, Rising Prices in Israel: A Call for Justice, Step up the pressure: Demonstrators prepare for 11th week of escalating protests, Public split on whether to follow High Court or govt in constitutional crisis: poll, Jewish communal world baffled after Ben Gvir targets mainstream US aid group JDC, Israeli envoy in NY deeply concerned by countrys direction as overhaul advances, Blinken urges consensus on Israeli judicial overhaul: The best way forward, International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Putin on suspected war crimes. Turkeys dam-building program could generate fresh conflict in the Middle East. ASPI. 24. The Rules-Based Multilateral Order: A Rethink Is Needed. The Institute of International and European Affairs. Fourth, the weight assigned to specific issues reflects the particular viewpoint at the time of publication but the relative weight of issues is liable to shift over time. Yohanan Plesner, President of the Israel Democracy Institute, opened the first session on establishing national, long-term strategies: "Rather than initiatives that curb the power of gatekeepers, legal advisors, and the Supreme Court, we must implement effective structural changes that tackle the . His research focuses on U.S. foreign policy, the U.S.-Israel relationship, Israeli strategy vis--vis Iran, and the Yemeni civil war. September 7, 2019. https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/rising-sea-levels-threaten-egypt-. Any errors in this work are the authors alone. October 2019. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/907071571420642349/HCP-MiddleEast-Plan-. The key U.S. objectives in the Middle East are to prevent the emergence of a power vacuum that will be filled by Russia or China and to make sure that regional problems dont spill over. Also, there is a strong demand from Washington for Middle Eastern allies to demonstrate progress toward democratization. The newly crowned King Khaled seeks to change the kingdoms priorities by reducing its regional involvement and focusing the bulk of its resources on domestic modernization. As for counterterrorism, it has served as a driving force behind American involvement in a variety of theaters including Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq, so the regrouping or decline of jihadist or other transnational militant groups from the region could factor into the level of U.S. engagement in the Middle East. For Israel, the deal is important. Continued thinking about the future may also allow Israel to identify potential opportunities earlier and to take the necessary steps to seize them, thereby increasing the likelihood that they can be realized. In 2027, Egypt conducts a nuclear test in its eastern desert. December 2004. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_Mapping%20the%20Glo. Just two years after the signing of the Abraham Accords, memorandums of understanding are turning into business deals, and trade between. Consumer spending has come to a crawl and predictions show that the Israeli economy will not hit the 3% growth that was predicted for 2023 despite boosts in the economy through higher consumer. The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight 9 (1). November 1, 2009. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-fina. Tuesday, March 3, 2020 This scenario demonstrates that a great power vacuum and resulting deterioration of the regional order could be accompanied by opportunities for Israel to diminish significant military threats at a lower cost. Aldar Properties PJSC ('Aldar') published its 2022 Sustainability Report today, showcasing the progress it has made across the four pillars of its sustainability strategy - environment . He served on Israels National Security Council in the Prime Ministers Office, coordinating the work on Iran and the Gulf under four National Security Advisers and three Prime Ministers. It seems it might grow a bit slower than forecasted, but it'll still be pretty good. Road Less Traveled: Different Methods, Different Futures. Journal of Future Studies. This could be the result of the rising importance of factors that are today considered marginal, or chain reactions resulting from game changers. The scenarios are intentionally replete with details in order to provide greater texture and encourage lively conversation and debate about the future; they are intended to both reflect and to test reality. Israel is another country that has managed to thrive on a major geopolitical fau. If they crash the economy and bring it to the ground, these i**ots will Nicolae Sptaru on LinkedIn: Powell / FED decisions in the following months will decide the future of Daniel holds a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) and a BA (magna cum laude) in Middle Eastern history, both from Tel Aviv University. In addition, the regional economies will face considerable challenges in recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, which inflicted severe damage on key industries. Please use the following structure: example@domain.com, Send me The Times of Israel Daily Edition. AboutPressCopyrightContact. China increases its support for Egypt as a means to reduce Russian influence in the country and in Africa more broadly. Lebanon devolves into a renewed civil war, which is exacerbated by external interference. Middle East Institute Merriam-Webster. August 2019. https://www.unicef.org/mena/sites/unicef.org.mena/files/2019-08/MENA%20. g) Environmental Problems: Climate change will likely intensify water scarcity in an already water-poor region,29 30 bring food shortages, spur refugee crises, and possibly make some areas in the Arab Gulf uninhabitable by 2050.31, h) Rapid Technological Change: Advances in technologies such as AI will allow for deeper incursions by authoritarian regimes into the private lives of citizens (digital authoritarianism) and will result in more unmanned or even autonomous systems on future battlefields.32. 2) Socio-economic stability in MENA countries is strongly correlated with (e) demographic pressures, societal and (f) economic prospects, (g) environmental problems, and (h) technological change. Brookings experts on the implications of COVID-19 for the Middle East and North Africa Israel has made progress toward these goals under difficult conditions, such as a rapid population increase, a boycott by most Arab countries, heavy expenditure on defense, a scarcity of natural resources, high rates of inflation, and a small domestic market that limits the economic savings of mass production. Huseyin Emre Ceyhun. January 4, 2021. https://www.inss.org.il/publication/climate-change-and-national-securit. Beyond the distinct methods, it is also worth keeping in mind that different vantage points will produce different scenarios. Israel is a staunch supporter of this process, but as a condition for its implementation had to agree to end its airstrikes in Syria. The acquisition of nuclear weapons by other Middle Eastern countries might not be initiated by Iran, could occur suddenly, and may involve several new actors almost in parallel. Evans, Michael K. "An Econometric Model of the Israeli Economy, 1952 -1965." It grew faster than the Eurozone average, as well as the US, Canada, and Australia. In 2030, Iran declares that the treachery of the West and the relentless pressure on the regime have left Tehran with no choice but to develop nuclear weapons and it carries out a successful underground test in the countrys eastern desert region. In return for drifting away from Russia, Turkey receives Washingtons help in realizing its aim of becoming a Mediterranean energy hub. Prime Minister Modi's "Reform, Perform and Transform" agenda is yielding remarkable results. Economic Outlook Note - Israel GDP growth is projected to moderate from a strong 6.3% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. Sophisticated offensive arms are sold to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries by Washington in order to discourage the purchase of Chinese alternatives and deter Iran. The relative prosperity in the region due to continued high oil prices and remittances from the Gulf leads Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to invest in more advanced and intrusive surveillance technology. The following article addresses the question of how the Middle East might develop in the coming decade. Rafael Ramirez, Malobi Mukherjee, et al. 19. July 20, 2020. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/covid-19-information-and-. The petrostates in the Middle East continue to provide financial support for the poorer states in the region. Toward a More Proliferated World? CSIS. American forces withdraw from Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, and their presence in the Gulf is reduced. Aside from that, Asian stocks are sagging and are not strong at all in 2022 due to China COVID resurgence. This leads to growing tensions between Russia and Turkey and rising American support for Ankara as a counterweight to Russian influence in the Middle East. However, it soon becomes apparent that the new government retains the ancien rgimes hegemonic ambitions. Moscow seizes the changes in Tehran as an opportunity to realize its aim of establishing a natural gas cartel among the worlds top four suppliers: Russia, Iran, Qatar, and Turkmenistan. Four years of Modi's government have transformed India's prospects drastically and the . Making great power competition the primary prism of the U.S. policy in the region could destabilize its traditional alliances and put it in a position of disadvantage in that very competition.. This timing, in addition to the social and economic crises ripping through Lebanon, is identified by Israel as an opportunity to take military action to degrade Hezbollahs military capabilities and the Iranian nuclear project. 2015. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715000841. Oil sales for the UAEthe UAE can obtain a new oil customer. Report: Bank officials believe $4 billion moved out of Israel in recent weeks. In updated projections last month, the Bank of Israel said it forecasts Israel's GDP growth at 6% in 2022, and 3% in 2023, as the country like everywhere continues to grapple with inflation. http://www.oecd.org/education/ceri/35393902.pdf. While 1985's economic reforms did dramatically reduce inflation and stabilize. Any benefits yielded from the fall of the regime could prove to be ephemeral without considerable engagement by the West. Infiltrations from Jordan oblige Israel to build an extensive fence to protect its eastern border. July 1994. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1994-07-01/peering-future. Because the authors of this paper are researchers at Israels Institute for National Security Studies, the scenarios have been developed from an Israeli point of view. Oded Eran. Accessed February 19, 2021. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/forecast. The intersection between the two variables produces the following four scenarios: After determining the four scenarios, we have added some meat to the skeletal scenarios through backcasting. Tehran responds with a symbolic missile attack on Israeli soil, and a Three-Day War between Israel and Hezbollah ensues. As coalition ploughs ahead with plans to shackle judiciary and uncertainty sweeps local market, individuals and . Over the course of the decade, between 2020 and 2030, the U.S. places sporadic but severe pressure on Israel to respond affirmatively to new peace proposals regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, requiring Jerusalem to make considerable concessions. What this suggests is the importance of considering in scenarios, or in the analysis of the implications of scenarios, what we might call counter-trends or anti-trends that could emerge instead of, or even alongside, an expected trend. The decline in energy revenues forces the Gulf states to reduce their economic support to the poorer Arab states, in particular Egypt. Middle East Economies: Dim Light at the End of the Tunnel. Institute for National Security Studies. The many points of contention between the great powers hinder their ability to prevent regional conflicts from erupting. Due to U.S. and UAE pressure, Israel assents to Mohammed Dahlans assumption of control over the Palestinian Authority (PA) after Mahmoud Abbass death in 2023. Also found in similar projects such as: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/ME2020.pdf. Scenario development is one of the most popular methodologies to investigate the future, and various methods have been developed to build and map scenarios.3 The basic concept evolved from business practitioners, with the most famous method being the matrix introduced by Royal Dutch Shell and refined later in Global Business Network (GBN). MENA Generation 2030. Unicef. The 2x2 matrix method lays down a structured process to develop scenarios.4 Two variables are identified as having the strongest potential impact on the future. This scenario depicts how making great power competition the primary prism of the U.S. policy in the region could destabilize its traditional alliances and put it in a position of disadvantage in that very competition. Understanding Analytical Tools for Thinking About the Futures, IV. November 2019. https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/social-capital-public-. The Israeli economy is estimated to grow by 3.3 percent this year; $100 billion (83.5 billion) in foreign direct investments is pouring into the country. National debt: According to a report published last week by the Taub Center for Social Policy, Israel's national debt increased to 72% of GDP in 2020, and it is expected to grow further. #israel #economyofisrael #geopolitics What is the economic future of Israel? Please note that the posts on The Blogs are contributed by third parties. 16. Friday, March 27, 2020 The Israeli Economy tells the story of this remarkable transformation, shedding critical new light on Israel's rapid economic growth. Radical Islamic terror groups abound throughout the region, taking advantage of protracted conflicts in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. It involves the systematic detection and identification of weak signals6 and emerging trends and considers their potential to become triggers of major change. Development of scenarios is only a starting point for strategic planning, and the latter issue is not dealt with in this article. Yoel Guzansky. http://www.oecd.org/education/ceri/35393902.pdf. The Fund for Peace. Padrag Murphy. "Democracy is the fuel for the economy's locomotive." That was written on a banner at today's protest against proposed judicial reform in Israel. Latest updates put the annual inflation to be at 5.1% in November. The goal of this policy paper is to propose a comprehensive economic strategy for the Israeli economy, backed up by a methodological framework based on the economys strengths and weakness, including a description of the areas that are in need of specific and implementable programs and continuous measurement of progress. Although we did not consider scenarios of Israels internal development, and instead focused mainly on its external environment, the former may ultimately prove to be the most decisive variable for its future. Forecast definition. Energy prices recover to pre-COVID levels, but the consensus among experts remains that a major long-term decline in demand is expected over the coming decade due to groundbreaking advances in renewables. June 19, 2018. Natan Sachs The U.S. refrains from directly confronting Iran out of concern that it will be drawn into another decades-long quagmire. However, it is worth noting that because these camps are composed of individual actors with interests that do not always entirely overlap with one another, hedging and limited inter-camp cooperation occur when interests dictate. Russia completes construction of a naval and air bases in Sudan and gradually increases its permanent Red Sea flotilla. Cairo declares that it is the first Arab country to attain a nuclear weapons capability, and it has done so due to a growing need for self-reliance in deterring Iranian aggression and ensuring continued access to vital water supplies in light of tensions with Sudan and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. By 2025, Dahlan brings U.S. and Emirati pressure to bear on Israel to promote a peace agreement. Third, to quote Shakespeare, there is nothing either good or bad but thinking makes it so. The complexity of thinking about the future is not only about how events will develop, but how those in the future will assess them. 33. In Israel, Benny Gantz decides to join with rival Netanyahu 14. U.S. efforts to repel the expansion of its great power rivals lead it to resume close cooperation with Turkey, which returned its S-400 surface-to-air (SAM) batteries to Moscow, and stopped the flow of Russian gas (having good substitutes from Azerbaijan, liquefied natural gas, and newly discovered internal resources). In this scenario, reduced U.S. pressure on Iran does not eliminate the possibility of regime change, but the new regime may not enter the Western orbit or forfeit hegemonic and nuclear ambitions if doing so has not or cannot deliver considerable improvements in Iranians living conditions. In the second half of the decade, sporadic violence by Shia militias in Iraq spills over into the Gulf, resulting in attacks on critical infrastructure including oil pumping stations, refineries, and pipelines. To build a resilient and strong recovery, policy should focus on upskilling and education. There is a significant rise in demand from these Arab states for joint ventures with Israel on technology related to desalination and agriculture and this helps them to cope with climate change more successfully than many other states in the region that refuse cooperation with Israel. Israel had a liaison office in Rabat from 1994 to 2000, and Morocco had one in Tel Aviv. For example, the NICs 2004 report notes that one uncertainty for the future is the Extent to which [Internet] connectivity challenges governments. It is now clear that despite the short period in which social media exclusively enabled the public to organize against regimes, the connectedness and smartness of daily life from iPhones to cashless payment to apps has since evolved into a force multiplier that on balance favors totalitarian governments. The first priority on the Israeli national security agenda is to prevent nuclearization by any Middle Eastern country. "Israel's Public Debate over Natural Gas: Future Confrontations," Institute for National Security Studies, INSS Insight 438, June 26, 2013. At first glance everything looks great. Consumer spending has come to a crawl and predictions show that the Israeli economy will not hit the 3% growth that was. The Israeli labour market is tight, with a low unemployment rate (3.9% in 2022) and employment above pre-crisis levels, so that the vacancy rate has stabilised at a historically high level towards the end of the year. 8. Although the Iranian presence in Syria is initially reduced, it is gradually reconstituted in the years that followed and Israel found itself unable to militarily intervene in order to prevent that. Dr. Guzansky is also a Non-Resident Scholar at the Middle East Institute and was previously a Visiting Fellow at Stanford Universitys Hoover Institution, an Israel Institute Postdoctoral Fellow, and a Fulbright Scholar. The Davos Scenario14 presented in the 2004 report is viewed as fairly optimistic and mutually beneficial in fact one of the concerns cited that caused sleepless nights was financial troubles for China.15 Nonetheless, the shift of the political consensus in the U.S. from a Liberal to a more Realist foreign policy viewpoint has made this somewhat optimistic outcome appear quite threatening when viewed through the lens of relative U.S. decline.16 Scenario developers and analysts would do well to consider: under what future conditions would the benefits and risks of our scenarios be perceived differently than we view them today? Following King Salmans passing in 2021, there is an attempted palace coup dtat in Saudi Arabia in which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) is assassinated and the Iranians seize the opportunity to foment large-scale protests in the predominantly Shia eastern regions of the country. Social Capital in the Middle East and North Africa. Arab Barometer. 32. How can it be that Israel leads the work in developing advanced vehicle technology, and yet our . Rather, we hope that reviewing how the futures of the past were perceived when compared with how they developed will be instructive in formulating clearer guidelines for how to think about the future. The global economic recovery lags because of setbacks in bringing an end to the COVID-19 health crisis. Jonas Svava Iversen. Growth is projected to pick up towards its potential rate in 2024 as inflation abates. Joseph Zeira takes readers from those early days to today, describing how Israel's economic development occurred amid intense fighting with the Palestinians and neighboring Arab countries. Total American assistance to Israel, from its establishment in 1949 up to 2016, amounts to approximately $125 billion, a whopping sum, making Israel the largest beneficiary of American aid in. 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