And I think theyve shown themselves to be, you know, very, I think, rational, in fact, for a country that is suffering a huge, huge amount, given the circumstances. Essential analysis of the stories shaping geopolitics on the continent. Agrawal is the author of, India Connected: How the Smartphone Is Transforming the Worlds Largest Democracy. The fact is, we had to deploy. CERES Statement on Russia's invasion of Ukraine: CERES Stands in Solidarity with Ukraine. February 1, 2023 I mean, Churchill said: Give us the tools, right? Chinese leaders decisions relating to Taiwan are far more likely to be influenced by the strength and durability of the U.S. military presence in East Asia. Three dozen foreign policy experts have called on the Biden administration and the United States as a whole to continue its efforts in providing Ukraine the necessary resources to oppose Russias invasion. Tai counters critics who say the United States is fostering unfair competition over semiconductors and clean energy. March 14, 2023 Thanks for the. The UN in Afghanistan, Twenty Years Since the U.S. out war in Ukraine. Annual Lecture on China, To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that They are targeting grain silos. This meeting series is presented by theMaurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies. So wherewhat are the stakes for the U.S.? Somewhere, that pressure has to build. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. Now the question, for you, General Breedlove. Understanding Ukraine's Foreign Policy Brookings President Strobe Talbott and Distinguished Fellow Javier Solana visited Kyiv March 31-April 1, where they met with President Victor Yanukovych,. Ukraines Westward drift since independence has been countered by the sometimes violent tug of Russia, felt most recently with Putins 2022 invasion. Meanwhile, Kyiv has received a major infusion of military aid from the West in the last three months. This is what they did with the so-called LNR and DNR. And if we dont get back to theor, lets say, the 1991 borders, then Russia will just be coming at us again. We saw that demonstrated here recently. And I think sometimes we think, OK, well, a year or two yearsI mean, the Russian timeline, certainly Putins timeline for this war, is much longer. And as we learn more and more about what happened in the Black Sea, it looks like that is what actually happened. How long can the two sides last? There were violations by the Russian side, some by the Ukrainian side as well. Q: Ariel Cohen with the Atlantic Council and the International Tax and Investment Center. So I want to startGeneral Breedlove, I think well start with you. If Ukraine cannot regain control of the so-called land bridge to Crimea and they cannot regain control of Crimea, and that remains Russias staging ground as it has over the last nine years, it will not be a viable country. And please note that the video and transcript of todays meeting will be posted on CFRs website. I do believe that we will get to something that resembles a military stalemate later in the year in which both Zelensky and Putin realize that their maximalist aims may not be attainable. The Russians are very aware of these political dynamics, and so are the Ukrainians. If weif the Ukrainians are willing to fight and theyre willing to basically defeat Russia, and we can help them get there, its costing us peanuts to do it. So this is, like, just skipping, you know, nine years of that is just misrepresentation of reality. Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews. We failed them. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang reiterated this on March 7 after an annual meeting of the National Peoples Congress. Russia has gone from one mobilization to the next, burning through equipment and ammunition faster than it can replace iteven resorting to the recruitment of prisoners to fight its drawn-Show moreout war in Ukraine. In an op-ed published Wednesday, the signers, some of whom have served in the State Department, the U.S. Army or as ambassadors, argued Western nations must continue to ensure the Russian invasion fails, forcing a withdrawal or a negotiated deal that Ukraine supports. And now were here in 23 and were talking about, yet again, rewarding bad behavior by giving Mr. Putin even more land. May 4, 2022, The SVB Collapse Shows U.S. Vulnerabilities Amid Great Power Competition, Blog Post Beyond the headlines, what can the world expect from the convening? Religion and Foreign Policy Webinars, C.V. Starr & Co. Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. I just want to restate that if we end up in a stalemate it is because we have made a policy decision to end up in a stalemate. And as a consequence, to begin to move toward some kind of diplomatic push now is premature. The airplanes were out in front of the Reaper at one point, dumping fuel ostensibly to try to cause the engine to malfunction, et cetera, et cetera, and then went around behind the aircraft and came into contact with the propeller blade. There are still American companies who are providing specific components that Russia needs for some of its military systems. and it began on March 4. C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics With Wally Adeyemo. Beyond the headlines, what can the world expect from the convening? As long as Crimea is in Russian hands, they dominate all the ports of Ukraine. Twenty years on, the war still shapes policymostly for the worse. Look, I think the Ukrainians have shown that they understand reality. THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. And despite our efforts at diplomacy, in Ukraine before Russia launched this full-scale invasion, despite the Ukrainians frankly shocking willingness to sit across from the Russians at the negotiation table in Turkey and elsewhere, theyve shown zero genuine interest in reaching some sort of diplomatic solution. Washingtons long-held policy has outlived its usefulness. It controls Odesa. Delivered Monday-Saturday. Can U.S. President Joe Biden really support Ukraine against Russia for as long as it takes, as he has pledged? BREEDLOVE: Well, thank you for having me, first of all, Jill. And as a consequence, I would focus more on making sure that the Ukraine thats out there, whether its 90 percent or 95 percent or 99 percent or a hundred percent, is ais a viable country. The tanks were a big breakthrough, obviously, most recently with Germany. Republican lawmakers arent the only ones who brandish the credibility thesis to burnish their hawkish credentials. And its that assessment that leads me to be more flexible and more pragmatic about bringing the war to an end sooner rather than later. And thats very, very unfortunate, but its the truth. One is some very bad airmanship and some poor flying skills resulted in a collision, and there are many who believe that now, and that would be the easier way to go forward from here. Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. Join FPsRavi Agrawalin conversation with a panel of China experts as they decipher the news from Beijing:Ryan Hassis the former China director at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,Zongyuan Zoe Liuis an FP columnist and fellow for international political economy at the Council on Foreign Relations, andJames Palmeris a deputy editor atForeign Policyand the author of the magazinesChina Briefnewsletter. Delivered Thursday. DOUGHERTY: General Breedlove, you know, were back to that issue of Crimea and some of the other territoriesthe Donbas, certainly. They have failed. Leah Scheunemann, Deputy Director, Atlantic Council. The war in Ukraine has provided its fair share of surprises. And were seeing some actions, including military, in Transnistria and Moldova. And even according to Russian law, as I understand it, they cannot give back territory that they have taken. Afghanistan, Stay updated on the topics you care about with email alerts. If Putin were, you know, at the Brandenburg Gate, if he were rolling into France and marshalling an amphibious invasion of the U.K., I would say, you know, lets go, right? by Olivia Angelino, Thomas J. Bollyky, Elle Ruggiero and Isabella Turilli What are its chances of success in a forthcoming offensive? The tough part is what happens if we keep doing what were doing now, which is to supply them enough to remain on the battlefield and remain viable but not enough to win. This is not a war between two willing parties over a dispute of some kind. Most of the countries of the world are sitting on the fence, right? How does the war end, right? A monthly digest of the top articles read by FP subscribers. The stakes, I think there are some important stakes. The White House has tapped Nicholas Berliner to serve as U.S. President Joe Biden's top Russia advisor, putting a career foreign officer in charge of one of Biden's most . So why dont we startIll start with Elise Lavage (ph)(laughs)over there. Can you hear me? More on this topic. I dont know. Russias invasion of Ukraine shook the geopolitical foundations of Europe and triggered a reassessment of transatlantic security. Download the FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. Global Climate Agreements: Successes and Failures, Backgrounder by James McBride, Noah Berman and Andrew Chatzky What are its chances of success in a forthcoming offensive? A curated selection of our very best long reads. Delivered Thursday. They said the United States and its European allies should avoid encouraging Ukraine to negotiate a cease fire that could place millions of Ukrainian civilians under Russian control. The letter to the Biden administration was led by U.S.-Ukraine Foundation co-founder Robert McConnell. Where we have the ability to put that pressure on is in Ukraine. Its not a vital national interest because otherwise wed have boots on the ground and wed be talking about bringing Ukraine into NATO. A third observation I would make is I think we as Americansforeign policy community in Washingtonneed to be careful not to overstate the stakes. A Ukrainian victory may be the countrys only chance at long-term salvation. Download the new FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. And so if Russia remains there and can use that as a military launching base for both air and sea power, and as we saw most recently a place to refit and refurbish their defeated land forces that left the south and went into Crimea, as long as that sanctuary and that military platform is there for them I do not believe we will ever have a defensible and/or a secure Ukraine. Frances president at the time, Nicolas Sarkozy, reportedly regarded Frances leadership role in the 2011 intervention against Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi as a way to shore up its reputation in the Arab world. March 15, 2023, Social Justice Webinar: Social Safety Nets, Virtual Event There are really two courses of what happened. What the United States Does in Ukraine Wont Matter in Taiwan. Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, and Miranda Priebe, director of the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss where the war in Ukraine is headed and how U.S. foreign policy should respond. Explore the benefits of your FP subscription. We give Ukraine what they need to get as far as they can in this fighting season. Its their territory. Well, Im happy to pick it up. We then try to broker a ceasefire and a diplomatic endgame toward the end of 2023. I agree to abide by FPs comment guidelines. They understand what kind of damage theyre doing. DOUGHERTY: So, Charlie, we have escalation versus protraction. Keep up with the world without stopping yours. 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And the expectation is that the Ukrainians will make some serious gains and counteroffensives with the systems they currently have through the spring and summer fighting season, and then were going to see where we are in the fall because, one, in the U.S., obviously, theres an election coming up. Want to read more on this topic or region? It wont disappear overnight. And I dont know the exact number now, but somewhere around 90 percent or 85 percent of Ukrainian territory is under Ukrainian control. Heading into a possible reelection year, FPs reporters will discuss if and how Biden can juggle these substantial foreign-policy issuesand how the campaign trail might change things. I would rather try to end this war sooner rather than later and try to restore Ukraines territorial integrity down the road through negotiations, probably with a post-Putin Russia. So if you have a basket case economy, which the U.S. will not support foreverno steel exports, grain exports at Russias permission, destroyed economy which no one will invest in if you cant export, and theres a threat of another warhow do you have a strong, viable Ukraine? In munitions, the need is greatest. Because on one hand, the administration, and others in Europe, they talk about Russia as, you know, this ultimate threat, like you said, the front line of democracy. Essay That doesnt just strike me as the way the world works. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has lobbied the U.S. and NATO for a no-fly zone, but is has been ruled out by the Biden administration because its enforcement would require U.S. and NATO jets to attack Russia jets that violate it. And clearly the military port on Crimea, Sevastopol, is incredibly important. Before joining FP in 2018, Agrawal worked at CNN for more than a. Shadow Government Ron DeSantis of Florida, who is widely expected to run for president in 2024, raised alarms among traditional GOP hawks and conservative pro-Israel foreign policy experts.. A spokesperson for DeSantis did not respond to requests for comment . It is Ukraine. Those sorts of arguments, I think, need to be examined very carefully. Argument: So theyre playing back our fears to us and the deterrence is working. The signers include former U.S. WASHINGTON Vladimir Putin's unprovoked war on Ukraine and the resulting global response will set Russia's economy back by at least 30 years close to old Soviet Union times and lower its. One of the fears about escalation is that if the Russians were to attack Crimea youre kind of on a different level of fighting. BREEDLOVE: OK. Great. China, February 23, 2023 DOUGHERTY: Hmm, OK. We have another online. KUPCHAN: Trudy, the rump Ukraine, if you will, that existed after 2014 was a viable country. Renewing America, Backgrounder Theyre not on board with this war. Can U.S. President Joe Biden really support Ukraine against Russia for as long as it takes, as he has pledged? The war in Ukraine has occasioned much simplistic analysis along these lines. Neither of those is happening, at least now. DOUGHERTY: I think weve got some sound problem. I dont know that its going to last with the Republican in control of the House. March 16, 2023, 2:58 PM. Beyond the headlines, what can the world expect from the convening? The campaign is led by ROBERT MCCONNELL, co-founder of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation. Ravi Agrawal is the editor in chief of Foreign Policy, the host of FP Live, and a regular world affairs analyst on TV and radio. So, to my mind, this is not just about Ukraine. NPR's Sacha Pfeiffer speaks with Angela Stent, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, about what could be guiding Putin's decision-making in Ukraine. I wanted to pick up on Alinas point about the Ukraines governments initial position with regard to Crimea in negotiations last year, which was very much the notion that that was maybe a phase two of any kind of negotiated settlement. Even if Moscow holds onto territory, the war has wrecked its future. To understand Washingtons part in fostering industrial policy, FPs Ravi Agrawal sat down with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, the Biden administrations top official tasked with mapping out and implementing the White Houses trade policy. Thank you. No. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Join in-depth conversations and interact with foreign-policy experts with. And I think its this year the war has to end. The one constant element in this slew of surprises has been the familiar claim that U.S. credibility is on the line and will rise or fall depending on the wars result and that Ukraine must therefore be provided the weaponry it needs to prevail. Anastasia Edel. Renewing America, Backgrounder Im very impressed with how steady the Biden administration and its European allies have been over year one. Congressional support for this aid has largely been bipartisan and wide-rShow moreanging, butRon DeSantis and other leading Republicansare beginning to question whether the United States is prepared to keep it up. And I particularly dont think were there because the. But how likely is it that Xi would take such a momentous action, which attacking Taiwan would certainly be, based on what the United States does or does not do in Ukraine? There is a greater multitude of voices. As far as recovering the Predator, we should get there first and we should recover the Predator. So whateverhowever this war continues, we need to understand that there is a suite of tools that are not just military that we need to use much more effectively. with Chris Howard, Chris Howard and Arohi Pathak, with Ivan Kanapathy, Bonny Lin and Stephen S. Roach, by Christoph Meinel and David Hageblling. Lets start with that. POLYAKOVA: Can I comment on this very quickly? One-stop digest of politics, economics, and culture. One year after the invasion began, heres what they have achieved and where critics say theyve fallen short. So I am among the ilkand I dontI dont hide from itthat Crimea has to be retaken, or else we cant achieve these things that the administration wants to achieve. Ukraine has withstood and repelled the mighty Russian military through Western support, Russian blundering, and its own resourcefulness. The signers said the United States should continue to lead the West in providing weapons to Ukraine, increasing sanctions on Russia and boosting NATOs military presence on its eastern borders. So this is the reality were going to be living in for a very long time. that Russia has the complete, absolute, 100 percent ability to turn it off or turn it on, anytime theyre not happy with how the world is handling them. So, finally, myyou know, where do I come out? Chinas colossal infrastructure investments may usher in a new era of trade and growth for economies in Asia and beyond. Is the Biden administrations China policy too hawkish? March 15, 2023, Social Justice Webinar: Social Safety Nets, Virtual Event Afghanistan Religion and Foreign Policy Webinars, C.V. Starr & Co. Corrupti, Foreign Affairs March/April 2023 Issue Launch: Russias Invasion of UkraineOne Year Later. And thats a question mark for me when the Ukrainian economy has already shrunk by 30-plus percent and its infrastructure and cities continue to get hit. Heres How. And the only reason Ukraine was maybe a little OK, right, in nine years is because the Russians let it go. Tune in for a wide-ranging discussion on Russia and Ukraines military options; the respective roles of Europe, the United States, and China; and more. KUPCHAN: Yeah. Maybe. C.V. Starr & Co. And I disagree with General Breedlove and Alina that a Ukraine that doesnt have Crimea is not sustainable. Essential analysis of the stories shaping geopolitics on the continent. NATO has expanded its presence along the eastern flank tremendously over the lastcertainly, and it possibly could get bigger. On the broader issue that were here to discuss today, I think we do still have to begin with the military side of it. Trump attorney says there wont be a standoff at Mar-a-Lago if hes Only two large US cities are affordable for new home buyers, Florida textbook altered to remove references to Rosa Parkss race: report. I worryand we can talk about this when we move to discussionabout whats happening here. Harris criticized DeSantis' lack of foreign policy experience, noting that as vice president, she has met with "over 100" foreign leaders and gained an understanding of the "significance, again . The first point is this fear of escalation is exactly what Mr. Putin wants. KUPCHAN: I agree with Alina that a protracted war is not in Ukraines interest or in our interest. The U.S. decision to extricate itself from a failing two-decade war in Afghanistan may therefore prove of little value in predicting how it might react were Russia to attack Eastern Europe. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. supports HTML5 video, Distinguished Professor and CETS Senior Fellow, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Tech;Former Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)(speaking virtually), Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, Professor of International Affairs, Georgetown University, President and Chief Executive Officer, Center for European Policy Analysis; Adjunct Professor of European Studies,Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Adjunct Professor, Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, Georgetown University; CFR Member. So this is very much a decisive year. The peace plan that was proposed last year, to my mind, it does require a genuine actor on the other side of the table, of course, to actually engage in negotiations. But I do agree with Charlie in that winning this land back now does not inoculate Ukraine from Russian mischievousness. BREEDLOVE: So Ill just pitch in on a couple of things. The obsession with credibility is hardly limited to the United States. And I think as long as we live in some other world where we dont realize that its the reality, then I think we are going to set ourselves up for that very dangerous scenario I described. Is it reallydo you agree that thatsthose are the two possible ways this can go, you know, danger of escalation but in fearing escalation the war can be driven on forever? So we are delusional if we think some sort of frozen settlement is going to lead to a long-term solution. This week, Ravi Agrawal is joined by Gen. Philip Breedlove, former NATO Suprem Show Foreign Policy Live, Ep America's Role in Helping Ukraine - Mar 17, 2023 . Every year, the top Chinese legislative and advisory bodies meet for two weeks to rubber-stamp decisionsalready made by the Chinese Communist Party. But I want to thank everyone very much for joining the meeting and for the good questions. Whats the next move? (Laughter.) by Jonathan Masters Is it conceivable to me that the next president of France could be Le Pen if things continue on their current course? We should not be, you know, strongarming Ukrainians into any kind of negotiated solution. It wont. They dont have some other more basic supplies, for example counter-UAS/counter-UAV technology. So, thank you. Now, I might say the chances of nuclear use are 40 percent, General Breedlove may say 20 (percent), Alina may say 10 (percent); to me, the question is, is it worth it? The court has issued arrest warrants for the Russian president and another senior official over the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children. (Required). Noah Berman and DOUGHERTY: I think well go to questions in the room. What Russia's invasion of Ukraine means for Belarus As Russia is using Belarus in its invasion of Ukraine, experts analyze the role of Aliaksandr Lukashenka's regime, and its impact on Belarusian sovereignty. Theres not going to be, you know, a Ukraine that is the breadbasket of Europe and the world again. So do they have what it takes to win, meaning to launch a counteroffensive and take back the land bridge, at least, in the southeast? POLYAKOVA: Yeah. As the war drags on in the Donetsk region, military experts are gaming out what a prolonged conflict might look like. Tune in for the inside scoop and watch FPs reporters in conversation with the magazines executive editor, Amelia Lester. No. Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on The examples are endless. I think that is in our future, and we have to now consider those security arrangements which might inoculate Ukraine from this mischievousness. Please follow our comment guidelines, stay on topic, and be civil, courteous, and respectful of others beliefs. We saw this with the Russian blockade of Ukraines grain exports and other agricultural goods, how that affects the entire global economy, how that affects us in the United Statesyou know, average Americans pocketbooks, right? It cannot be contained because there are massive ramifications. , very unfortunate, but its the truth meeting and for the inside and... United States is fostering unfair competition over semiconductors and clean energy and clearly military... Minister Qin Gang reiterated this on March 7 after an annual meeting of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation co-founder Robert McConnell co-founder! 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